NBA Twitter has literally opened up a fit over the question of the night: Will Oklahoma City Thunder shooting guard Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, or SGA, score over or under 30.5 points in his next offense? This NBACentral tweet did start a whirl of “line prediction-into-match” types of promos for fantasy basketball. Let’s break that down: why should anybody even be talking about this?
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SGA has been absolutely murdering this year. Well, to say it halfway, he is scoring 30.9 points per game; 30.5 points are almost the average he has scored so far this year. That small margin just gives an option to a deliciously interesting speculator. There are some days when SGA hits for 40+, and on some nights they really latch on defense for about 25 points: that is his life; there is no in-between.
The tweet basically asks the question and drops a link for all fantasy punters to get in on the action (because obviously, it’s an ad). Typically, I would say everyone should have their theories screeching into the void on a question like that, but instead, it’s silence in the replies. Maybe they are all busy crunching stats or staring at fantasy lineups. Maybe, just maybe, they are bored of the same-old promo tweets. Who can tell?
For those so far not paying attention, SGA is not just a scorer; he is the engine of the Thunder, leading in points, assists, and all kinds of havoc against opposing defenses. He has a sneaky fast first step, a deadly midrange game, and can get to the foul line anytime he desires. But here’s the catch: defenses know this. Double teams become their favorite pass, and with all glare cast at him, they clog the paint with much joy. So 30+ points aren’t an absolute for this guy, come heck or high water.
If hypothetically speaking: A really bad perimeter defense team (read: you-know-who) is going to let SGA feast. But if it’s a really demanding defense, and in some way it makes disrupted rhythm one way or the other, then that makes those points hard-earned. And don’t forget, basketball’s unpredictability: one of his teammates just suddenly hits everything would mean fewer shots for SGA; or he rolls an ankle early and sits until the fourth. Everyone should take all those variables into account.
Now, that is a real big question; why does it matter? Because in the world of fantasy basketball, every game is just a math equation. Points, rebounds, and assists all become mere numbers in an app. For the actual fans, it all circles to watching SGA destroy defenses with his slick handles or watching him take over during crunch time. So it’s fun to speculate on whether he goes over or under, but the better fun is in actually watching the game.
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Over or under 30.5? I’ll leave that up to you. One thing is sure though; it’s going to be a hell of a party to watch.
